ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR POTENTIAL TOWARDS ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NORTH SULAWESI PROVINCE
Abstract
As the backbone of North Sulawesi's economy, agriculture faces declining contributions to GRDP and employment. This study identifies the potential of agricultural subsectors to increase economic growth and provides recommendations for agricultural development planning. Quantitative methods with Location Quotient, Dynamic Location Quotient, Shift Share, and Klassen Typology analysis were applied to time series data of North Sulawesi GRDP and national GDP constant price 2010 for the period 2013-2022 for food crops, horticulture, plantations, livestock, and fisheries subsectors. The result is that the five subsectors are base subsectors, but food crops and fisheries repositioned to non-base in the future. In the shift-share analysis, food crops are classified in the Loser quadrant, while horticulture, plantations, and livestock are the Mixed Winner quadrant, and fisheries are the Mix Loser quadrant. Klassen Typology analysis shows that food crops and fisheries are developing subsectors, while horticulture, plantations, and livestock are mainstay subsectors. This research recommends that the Department of Agriculture and Livestock prioritize La Nina mitigation irrigation infrastructure and drainage systems in disaster-prone areas and subsidize NKV certification for export-oriented breeders. For the Department of Plantation, this research recommends accelerating replanting of old coconut trees by using genetically modified seeds with high productivity.
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